It can hardly be any closer with 20 weeks to go.
Yesterday’s 1News/Kantar poll produced a result that, if translated to the ballot box, would have shown National and Act would be able to form government. But not really.
We get used to it. Although psychologists rightly warn us to focus on trends, the lines are uneven throughout the year. When we look at the top lines in the latest polls from the major political polling firms, the most striking image is a trembling closeness.
Here it is in the picture:
To highlight how tight it is, nudging several parties a point or two in each direction represents a big change in the governing ensembles. Here’s what happens when each of these results is played out in a hypothetical House of Representatives.
62–58: Government of National Law with Christopher Luxon as Prime Minister – 1News/Kantar
This week poll, held in the days after Labour’s budget, saw National surge ahead to form a government with 62 of the 120 seats in parliament. Act’s 15 seats are likely to give them at least a quarter of the seats in an expected coalition cabinet. (All of these examples, by the way, are based on at least one pati-Māori electorate win, not an election.)
61–59: Labour-Greens plus Te Pāti Māori government with Chris Hipkins as PM – Newshub/Reid
The latest Newshub pollheld earlier this month would have prompted the headline ‘Te Pāti Māori as kingmaker’ were it not for the fact that Christopher Luxon excluded working with them just a few days ago. Instead, it led to a result that, if repeated on election day, would have given Chris Hipkins a chance to form government, probably with a Greens coalition and a confidence and supply agreement with Te Pāti Māori, but in the narrowest, potentially shakiest of fields, especially when you remove the speaker from these 61 places.
62–58: National-Act, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon – Taxpayers’ Union/Curia
Almost identical result with 1News in the last one Survey of the Curia for the Union of Taxpayers.
62–58: Labour-Greens plus Te Pāti Māori, with Prime Minister Chris Hipkins – Roy Morgan
Turn it over to the other side the last poll by Australian pollster Roy Morgan, which presents a scenario similar to the Newshub result above.
60-60: Dead Battle – Talbot Mills
Last poll Talbot Mills offers a third option: deadlock. Run the numbers to Parliament and the National Plus Act would have 60 seats, exactly half the seats in a strangely tied house, with Labor and the Greens on 55 and Te Pāti Māori on five.
What would happen if the election was tied? probably – as we explored here – another election.
61–59: National-Act, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon – party median
Throw out all of the above results and add them together and the mean average will mark the victory for the correct block but with the largest whisker. National and Act could form a 61-seat coalition with the opposition consisting of 43 Labor MPs and 11 and 5 from the Greens and Te Pati Māori respectively.
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Source link – https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/25-05-2023/five-very-similar-polls-three-very-different-results