Two news that caused a certain informational excitement
On May 26, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese special representative for peace negotiations with Russia and Ukraine allegedly insisted in negotiations with European diplomats that “Russia should remain in possession of those parts of its “smaller neighbor” that it currently occupies”; On May 27, in an interview with TASS, Deputy Foreign Minister Mykhailo Galuzin formulated the Russian conditions for peace with Ukraine, which look like an ultimatum.
Both news are linked not only by the topic of peace negotiations regarding the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, but also by the “peacemaking tour” of the Chinese special representative Li Hui. On May 26, he visited Moscow, where he held talks with the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov. With high probability, Galuzin’s statement is a Russian move immediately after the visit of the Chinese special representative to Moscow.
This statement is essentially propaganda, but made in the context of the negotiation process. From this point of view, it can be perceived as an almost maximum raising of the negotiating bar by Russia.
Let me remind you what the requirements are (precisely demands, not proposals) put forward by the Russian deputy minister: “In order to achieve a comprehensive, fair and durable peace, Ukraine must return to the neutral non-aligned status recorded in the Declaration on its state sovereignty in 1990, refuse to join NATO and the EU. The new territorial realities that have developed as a result of the realization of the right of peoples to self-determination must be recognized.” (in this case, it is clearly about Ukraine recognizing the Russian annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories — V.F.). The Deputy Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation also stated about «denazification and demilitarization” of Ukraine, and also noted that “settlement is possible only under the condition of cessation of hostilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
China is just beginning to probe the political situation
Nothing new at all. We have heard all this many times already last year. But now Russia is no longer dreaming of taking Kyiv, rather it is trying to keep what it “grabbed” last year and in 2014. As for denazification and demilitarization, the failure of these tasks of the so-called SVO was recognized even by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian PMC «Wagner”, which is fighting against Ukraine as part of Russian troops. Therefore, now to the Russians «not to fat, to be alive.” However, the Kremlin still wants to negotiate, forgetting that now is not the end of February 2022, but May 2023, and one should think not about ultimatums to Ukraine, but rather about how to restrain the Ukrainian offensive and protect its border regions from anti-Putin partisans.
Ukrainian official representatives immediately responded to the demands of the Russian Foreign Ministry. The head of the president’s office, Andriy Yermak, noted that no negotiations with the Russians are possible today. Yermak’s adviser Mykhailo Podolyak presented the Russians with Ukraine’s counter-conditions, which require Russia to:
• withdrew its troops from the sovereign territory of Ukraine;
• recognized that the USSR has collapsed, and the post-Soviet countries have the full extent of sovereignty;
• extradited war criminals and authors of war;
• established a demilitarized zone on its territory;
• reduced offensive weapons;
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• agreed to hold the International Conference on Organization of Control over Russia’s Nuclear Arsenal;
• agreed to the legal fixation of the program of reparation payments by Russia;
• gave up Russian assets seized in other countries in favor of Ukraine.
You can say they exchanged «Courtesy”. But the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine, the punishment of Russian war criminals, and compensation by Russia for all damages caused to Ukraine by the Russian invasion are our official demands, which are recorded in the “peace formula” of President Zelensky. All serious experts talk about the demilitarization of the border areas as one of the conditions of the peace agreement. And Ukrainian peace conditions will inevitably have to be considered at future peace talks.
The Ukrainian position was brought to the attention of the Chinese special representative when he visited Kyiv. Perhaps this caused such a reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba denied the information of The Wall Street Journal regarding the position of the Chinese special representative. According to him, he contacted European partners and did not receive confirmation of this information. The minister added that Ukraine will continue to conduct dialogue with China in compliance with three basic principles: “The first is exclusive mutual respect for territorial integrity. Second, we will not, in principle, consider any initiatives that involve any legal or actual territorial concessions of Ukraine. And the third – no freezing of the conflict.”
How then to explain the publication in The Wall Street Journal?
The most likely explanation is that the meetings of the Chinese special representative with European colleagues probably discussed various options for a peaceful settlement of the current major war between Russia and Ukraine, including the scenario of “freezing the conflict”. That is, the special representative of the People’s Republic of China did not so much insist on this position, but rather asked European colleagues about their attitude to this idea.
There is also a conspiratorial explanation for this situation, that the Americans and some European diplomats allegedly wanted to discredit the mediation mission of the Chinese special representative in this way. But notice what is considered as an item «discrediting” — the idea of Europeans agreeing to preserve Russia’s occupation of a part of Ukrainian territory. This is precisely what is unacceptable. By the way, Russia also drew attention to this, judging by some publications in their Telegram channels.
Therefore, the main consequence of the uproar surrounding the publication in The Wall Street Journal about the negotiations of the Chinese special representative can be considered precisely the negative assessment and categorical rejection by Ukraine and our European partners of the idea of preserving Russia’s occupation of part of the Ukrainian territory as a condition for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.
And one more important conclusion – at the moment there are no real peace talks on the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, there is only informational and political fuss around this topic, which is caused by the shuttle diplomatic mission of the Chinese special representative. But China is just beginning to probe the political situation surrounding such a complex problem as the peaceful settlement of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Real peace talks will begin only when the consequences of active hostilities in the summer become clear.
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