Luhansk region and Vuhledar region: ISW assessed the likely directions of the new offensive of the Russians
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War drew attention to Bloomberg material, in which Kremlin insiders said that Putin was preparing a new offensive. The goal is to bring the initiative back to the battlefield, with an estimated start date of February or March 2023.
The agency’s report is consistent with ISW’s current assessment and forecast that the Kremlin is gearing up for decisive strategic action.
ISW experts suggest that the planned offensive of the Russians will take place in the Lugansk region or in the Vuhledar region in the Donetsk region.
These conclusions are based on the fact that:
📌 recent limited Russian ground attacks in the Zaporozhye region could have been aimed at dispersing Ukrainian forces and creating conditions for an offensive in the Luhansk region;
📌 Russia will redeploy parts of the 2nd motorized rifle division from Belarus to the Luhansk region.
The ISW considers it extremely unlikely that this new offensive will be aimed at northern Ukraine from Belarus.