not the end. When the pandemic leaves the world

The pandemic has been rampant in the world for the second year in a row, and every time people have to fight new strains – more contagious or less deadly. The latest strain of Omicron from South Africa has crippled humanity with insane speed and anti-records, but many experts say it will end the pandemic.

I have learned whether Omicron will really be our last dangerous enemy NTA.

Pandemic: 2022 will be the last for the “crown”

Back in December last year, experts from the World Health Organization statedthat, despite the rapid spread of the Omicron strain, the pandemic could end in 2022.

The available data show that Omicron is transmitted much faster than Delta. And people who have already been vaccinated or relapsed to COVID-19 are more likely to be re-infected, ”said WHO President Tedros Gebreesus at a briefing in Geneva.

WHO also suggests that with the advent of second- and third-generation vaccines and innovation, 2022 will be the last year of the pandemic.

Despite such positive forecasts, 12 million cases of the disease were recorded in the European region in January. This is the highest weekly incidence since the beginning of the pandemic. Most of the new cases were due to the spread of the Omicron strain.

At the same time, Hans Klune, Director of the WHO European Office he saysthat for the first time he sees an opportunity to take control of the spread of the disease in Europe. In particular, he named three factors that suggest a probable end to the pandemic:

• sufficient supply of coronavirus vaccine;
• formation of collective immunity, as a large number of people have already become ill with COVID-19;
• favorable weather at a time when the seasons change;
• lower level of complexity of the disease from infection with Omicron.

The number of infections decreased by 19%

As you can see, the incidence of COVID-19 is really declining. So, in the world last week the number of patients decreased by 19%. At the same time, the number of deaths remained the same as in the previous week, according to the WHO.

Shares the opinion of the WHO representative and the Minister of Health of Ukraine Viktor Lyashko:

“It is not necessary that the pandemic returns to us at all. We can defeat it this year, but for this we need to act together in a coordinated manner, “the Minister said.

In his opinion, the possibility of ending the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 is confirmed by the following arguments:

• A large number of people have already fallen ill, so they have acquired a certain immunity.
• Omicron is less aggressive than Delta, but more contagious. Therefore, more people will get it without serious consequences
• Many people have already been vaccinated against COVID-19
• Direct antiviral drugs for the treatment of coronavirus have appeared.

About the end of the pandemic they spoke and in the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. The Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal emphasized this the day before:

“We expect 2022 to be the year of the end of the pandemic as it was in the previous two years,” he said.

The Prime Minister noted that almost half of the adult population of Ukraine has received a vaccine against coronavirus.

What is the situation with morbidity in Ukraine

Traditionally new wave coonavirus in Ukraine started after the New Year and Christmas holidays. On February 4, the Ministry of Health showed an anti-record for the number of new patients – almost 44 thousand infected per day. This figure was the highest in the pandemic. The following week, Viktor Lyashko announced: “Ukraine has reached the peak of the coronavirus wave.” Instead, the incidence and level of hospitalizations in Ukraine are now rapidly declining. The peak will pass in two or three weeks, say the Ministry of Health.

“We are now at the peak of the incidence, we see the second week in a row already reduced incidence. And this will be the third week that will show that the number of cases and hospitalizations is decreasing, “Minister Viktor Lyashko said on February 18.

“The pandemic is over”

In the comments for NTA epidemiologist of the Western Ukrainian Specialized Children’s Medical Center Oksana Pushkareva noted that after most now fall ill, there is a chance that humanity will stop the pandemic. She stressed that infectious diseases may subside for a while, but may return later.

At the same time, she noted that it is not necessary to hurry with statements that the pandemic will end after Omicron, but this is likely.

“If you look at the statistics of the evolution of viruses, there is actually a period when they exist and then subside. Therefore, no one knows whether the pandemic will stop at Omicron. But there is a possibility, “she said.

Instead, an epidemiologist of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, head of the Department of Epidemiology of Lviv Medical University, Professor Natalia Vinograd says the pandemic is over.

“I would say that the pandemic as such is over, because Omicron belongs to a completely different genetic group in its characteristics. We already have signs today that an extremely serious evolution of the pathogen is taking place. By all indications, this is, in fact, the end of the pandemic, “said the professor.

According to her, the main feature is the difference of “Omicron” in characteristics from other previously known strains of coronavirus.

The point is not that it is Omicron, but what the properties of this genetic variant are. He significantly reduced virulence, changed the pathogenesis of the disease, ie there is damage to the upper respiratory tract. However, all previous genetic variants had tropism to the lower respiratory tract, “the epidemiologist added.

At the beginning of the pandemic, the pathogen had a very high epidemic potential, as the entire human population was susceptible to a new virus that had not previously circulated. Instead, the current Omicron is becoming one of those viruses that will not have such a high medical and social significance. Natalia Vynohrad noted that the development of the pandemic is actually determined by the causative agent.

Omicron is not the last strain

At the same time, the professor stressed that Omicron cannot be the last strain, because any biological species is constantly changing.

“It simply does not happen. Unless the organism as a biological species disappears completely. Only then nothing new will be formed. There are laws of development of any biological species. This is the emergence of new differences: either genotypic or phenotypic. The direction of these mutations – reduction or increase of certain properties – will determine the emergence of the epidemic process, “- said Natalia Vinograd.

The incidence of coronavirus is now declining, and will continue to do so. The same trend was observed in Africa, where “Omicron” started, and in European countries.

The downward trend is observed in all countries of the world where Omicron was distributed. And it spread very quickly due to such a concept in epidemiology as a low infectious dose. Therefore, a large number of people became infected, and, accordingly, the post-infectious population immunity was quickly formed, ”says Natalia Vynohrad.

According to the epidemiologist, this does not mean that new cases of the disease will not be recorded at all, but their number will decrease: “That is, a sharp rise and a sharp descent.”

Valeria Rabinovych