It is the military’s starkest prediction and a rare example of an officer suggesting so clearly how the US would respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
A top US Air Force general predicts that the US and China will likely go to war in 2025. The reason may be a conflict due to Taiwan.
Gen. Mike Minigan, head of the US Air Mobility Command, said the two powers would likely eventually go to war because of a series of circumstances that would embolden Chinese President Xi Jinping. He writes about it Financial Timesciting a leaked memo from Minighan to his superiors.
“I hope I’m wrong. My intuition tells me that we will be at war in 2025. Xi Jinping won his third term (as general secretary of the Communist Party, – ed.) and formed his military council in October 2022. The presidential election on Taiwan will take place in 2024, and Xi will have an excuse,” Minigan wrote.
He added that the 2024 US presidential election would create a “distracted America” that would benefit China’s leader.
“Xi Jinping’s team, drive and capabilities will be aligned by 2025,” the general noted.
As the FT notes, Minighan’s comments are the harshest prediction yet from a senior military commander and a rare example of an officer suggesting so clearly how the US would respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
As head of the Air Mobility Command, Minighan oversees aviation logistics for the U.S. Armed Forces. The general previously served as deputy head of the Indo-Pacific Command, which would be directly responsible for directing US forces in any conflict with China.
Eric Sayers, a former adviser to the Indo-Pacific Command, said Minigan has been at the “tip of the spear” in the Pacific for more than a decade and understands the Chinese threat “better than anyone in the military.”
“The language of the memo is harsh and may cause discomfort, but memos of this nature are not intended for public review or as a sophisticated intelligence assessment of the potential for conflict,” Sayers said.
He added that people should interpret the document as “a controlled correspondence with Minigan’s subordinates that he expects them to take immediate action to improve the command’s readiness.”
Confrontation between the USA and China over Taiwan – what is known
As UNIAN reported, earlier the Commander of US Naval Operations, Admiral Michael Gilday, predicted that conflict between China and Taiwan may begin in the coming years.
Tensions between the states rose in 2022 following a visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to the island, which Beijing claims as its territory. China is convinced that the US should maintain only unofficial contacts with this self-governing island. In response to Pelosi’s visit, China broke off the dialogue with the US in the military and climate spheres, and introduced against the speaker and her closest relatives sanctions.
In October, China said it reserved the right to use force to resolve the Taiwan issue. China also held military exercises around Taiwanwhich the island authorities named imitation of an attack. Director General of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, Chen Ming-Tung, noted that China is studying Russia’s experience waging a hybrid war against Ukraine.
At the end of December 47 aircraft of the Chinese Air Force crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. And at the beginning of January, the situation repeated itself – the Ministry of Defense of Taiwan recorded 57 military aircraft and four PRC ships.