Intelligence noted that Ukraine’s victory in the war against Russia would increase security in the Baltic region.
Estonian intelligence reported a growing danger of military pressure of Russia on the Baltic countries and security risks for these countries in the medium and long term.
This is stated in the annual report of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Estonia, published February 8.
It is noted that a Russian military attack on Estonia in 2023 is unlikely. All because the units of the Russian army, which were previously stationed near the Estonian border, are currently fighting on the territory of Ukraine.
“At the same time, Russia’s foreign policy ambitions, driven by the Kremlin’s bellicosity and imperialism, have significantly increased the threat to security. If Russia achieved diplomatic or military success in Ukrainethis would increase the risk of the Kremlin’s political and military pressure on the Baltic states in the mid-2020s,” the Estonian intelligence report says.
They warned that the security situation in the Baltic region this year could be further aggravated by Russian plans to hold large-scale military exercises near the western borders of the Russian Federation two years earlier than planned.
The intelligence emphasized that Russia considers the Baltic states to be the most vulnerable part of NATO. So the Baltic countries will become the center of military pressure in the event of a conflict between Moscow and the Alliance. It is expected that precisely for this reason, the Russian Federation will most likely give priority to the restoration of its military potential, weakened in the war in Ukraine, directly near the border with Estonia.
“Quantitative recovery of the capabilities of these units will take up to four years. From the point of view of the Baltic states, Russia still has enough forces to exert serious military pressure in our region,” Estonian intelligence said.
The report also states that it is important for Estonia to demonstrate its military readiness to NATO in order to ward off Moscow’s temptation to test the Alliance’s security guarantees.
“The likelihood of military conflict between NATO and Russia would increase if Russia were to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine’s victory in the war against Russia will also increase security in the region,” the intelligence agency believes.
We will remind you that in December 2022, Polish Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Pawel Jablonski said: “If we do not stop Russia, we have a 100% guarantee that there will be more wars.” According to Yablonsky, Poland and the Baltic states are on the “Russian list of targets”.
At the same time, The Guardian reported that the Kremlin-linked neo-Nazi paramilitary group “Rusich” called on its members to provide intelligence on the border and military activity in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
According to Russian oppositionist and publicist Andriy Piontkovsky, Russian President Vladimir Putin viewed the invasion of Ukraine only as preparation for war with NATO. The Baltic countries could become the next targets.